The thought experiment post I never wrote: Last October’s prediction of a future pandemic!

Happy weekend, peeps! My last post was my first go at a Savings Ninja ‘thought experiment’ (the Covid-19 edition), but I’ve been following this series for a while, as I love entertaining possibilities – possibly a hallmark of the FI personality (hmm, perhaps the basis of a future post!). Anyway, a while back in late October / early November and almost certainly while I was tag-teaming with hubby at a soft play centre, I started writing notes that would be the basis of a post I never wrote…

I was attempting the following thought experiment, posted by Savings Ninja

I recently read a statistic that 85% of the jobs there will be in 2030 have not yet been created. What do you think these jobs are, and which ones will no longer exist? What does this mean for education? What will offices look like in 11 years? Will people continue to commute to a physical office or will remote work and digital nomadism take over? Finally, how do you think this will affect the overall global economic balance?

Savings Ninja, ‘The Future of Work’, 15th Oct 2019

A few days ago I was going through my phone and found these notes, which kind of predicted a health pandemic! I must add, I didn’t stay within the realm of work – not sure if these note-form points were the basis of a more work-related response or if I was taking the original ‘experiment’ as inspiration for a different kind of post.

Just to add, I’ve resisted the temptation to edit, except to add links (and captions) that had been on my mind at the time. I can’t claim credit either that they are all my own ideas, as you’ll see…

“In 10 years’ time

A third of jobs as we currently know them will be gone to AI, the working classes will suffer most. Many jobs will still require humans even if they have bot assistance. For example, teaching, hairdressing, nursing, because we in essence haven’t evolved for the last thousand of years. [I had intended to share this link where you can check how at risk your own job is to automation.]

Life expectancy will remain largely the same, except for the richest. There will be a new tier above super rich. Mental disorder rates will be at an all time high. Cancer survival rates will be much higher for many cancers, but we will die from dementia, diabetes, falls and loneliness more than ever.

We will still be in the aftermath of Brexit, economically, politically and societally. No side will be satisfied with the outcome and new parties will develop out of this. The UK will look at life as pre and post Brexit era.

We will have been in a recession or are deep in it. Technology will hasten lay offs.

The big four banks will have reduced slightly. The big supermarkets too.

There will be some new health scare. It’ll seemingly come from no where and spread very fast across the globe. A pandemic.

Therapy bots and healthcare bots will be a thing.” 

[This last point reflects a post I wrote in September on the shocking cost of old age and how I wanted to address it to maintain quality of life for as long as possible which I believe we have a very strong defence mechanisms not to think about.]

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So, woah, while I definitely didn’t predict the seismic shifts that SN did (I don’t think our thinking changes that fast as we are not wired up for that), I did forecast some kind of pandemic! I guess I didn’t expect it to come so soon, haha, but I imagine there will be future viral pandemics too. I sometimes follow the Effective Altriusm initiative (which I’d love to be involved with in another life!) and although I can’t find the article now, I think health pandemics came up as a research priority under ‘catastrophic risks’ at some point over the last years. It struck a chord with me.

I wonder now if rather than society viewing life pre and post Brexit, it’ll now be pre- and post-coronavirus? A bit like flying pre and post 9/11, but more on an everyday social interaction level. Will an economic recession be coming our way or is this just a blip? Will tchnology hasten lay-offs as I predicted if there was a recession??!

While Savings Ninja previously wrote about how to do a degree for free or very cheaply (I’m now also thinking of the original thought experiment wording re education and working from home), the current lockdown goes to show me how much most of our students need the contact and structure of face-to-face learning.

Re therapy bots: Interestingly, I was asked to review a grant application recently on the development of a chat bot to improve social outcomes in teenagers with autism. I’m seeing studies coming out trialing depression apps too.

You may feel there is a sense of doom and gloom here in those notes, yet I’m a cautious optimist at heart. (Cautious as in not to take things for granted or expect things to always be improving.) Those seeking financial independence through intensive saving and investing, frugalism and resourcefulness, and conscious living, career selection and an adaptive mindset, will be well placed… indeed optimally placed to weather any storms ahead.

What are your work-related and other predictions for 10 years’ time?

(Note: Credit to https://www.flickr.com/photos/yvesklein/16942025626/ for the top photo)